The leader in the Progressive Conservative leadership first ballot is right to have called the turnout to Saturday’s ballot disappointing. Gary Mar swept many parts of the province for 41 per cent of his party’s support, but less than 60,000 people bothered to go out and vote.
Locally, turnout was much higher than in neighbouring and urban constituencies. That’s a good sign local people are engaged and want a say in who the next premier should be. The local turnout dwarfed many urban areas and succeeded in being the only rural constituency to garner more than 1,000 voters. The tireless campaigning of MLA Ray Danyluk for Doug Horner appears to have worked, with over 80 per cent of 1,343 votes going to Horner.
Horner’s focus in rural areas did not go unnoticed and is likely responsible for his making it to the second ballot. He is the only candidate to have bothered to hold an event in St. Paul and Glendon so far. Horner earned the dominant support in most northern constituencies from the east to the west of the provincial boundaries (except Fort McMurray – Wood Buffalo, which went to Mar), and in the areas surrounding Edmonton. He received hardly any support in Calgary and not much in the south of the province. Redford, in second with less than half the votes of Mar, won several constituencies in Calgary and did OK in Edmonton. Like Horner, Redford would need to earn the support of many more party members to have a shot at the premier’s seat.
Another surprise on Saturday was Ted Morton and Rick Orman’s poor showing, in fourth and fifth, respectively. The two fiscal conservatives were sidelined by the first ballot and are now nothing more than an afterthought to a party which has turned more closely to its progressive roots at the risk of alienating its conservative wing in the big tent party. The more important result of the leadership race to be concluded Oct. 1 will be its positioning vis-ŕ-vis the Liberal party, with new leader and troublemaker Raj Sherman, and the Wildrose party with Danielle Smith. The PCs will have to do much better than a mere 60,000 voters come election time, and the new leader, whoever that is, will have quite the task ahead.
