As I look out the vast sea of green off my back deck, I can just see the town of St. Paul in the distance. The lights of the Town twinkle in the distance at night. It's hard to imagine seven billion people living on the planet, but the global population is expected to reach that number this month and continue growing. By 2045, the population is projected to be about nine billion. Our population is the elephant in the room nobody wants to talk about. It's the issue behind almost every other crisis in the world, including environment, economics, health care, war and of course famine.
In 18 years living in St. Paul, I have seen evidence of growth, particularly on the east side of town, with large stores and parking lots taking over the green space. Don't get me wrong, I like to see the progress and business come to my community but at the same time I have twinges of fear about lost land and nature. I fear we will grow and grow until every square inch of green space is occupied.
Globally, we are clearing forests for farm land, burning more coal and oil to grow and transport food, scattering more fertilizers and pesticides, soil is eroding, glaciers are melting and fish stocks are vanishing. Still, close to a billion people go hungry each day and in a few decades there will be two billion more people to feed.
Our Alberta oilsands have come under much international criticism, yet without oil there would be less food resulting in mass starvation. I believe in alternative energy but the systems have not advanced to the point where they can effectively replace oil. Of course, we must gradually find a replacement because oil is a non-renewable resource and will run out, but if the transition were to happen too fast, the results would be devastating to the world.
It seems the best hope for humanity lies in our compassion. Replacement population growth is approximately two births per woman, and many countries in Europe and North America are already at replacement population growth. Some, like France, have a negative growth rate. More recently, countries such as Brazil and Iran have experienced a decline in birth rate but have not quite reached replacement growth.
There is a correlation between survival of infants and a decline in birth rate. The theory is that sub-consciously humans have many babies in hopes a few will survive to adulthood. As we become more confident our children will survive, we don't need to have as many children.
There is also a correlation between education of women and a decline in birthrate. When women become educated they have jobs and careers with less time to manage large families.
Supporting less developed countries with medical care, education and helping them to become a part of the global economy will likely result in a decline in birth rate. That's a benefit for the entire planet.
There is still hope for humanity. With technology we can replace our dependence on oil and maintain levels of food production. With love and compassion we can help poor countries rise up and birth rates will fall off naturally.
Perhaps there is even hope my daughter will be able to look out over acres of green trees and not have to live in a cement city.
