WASHINGTON (AP) — Eight candidates will go before southern Arizona voters at the ballot box Tuesday in special congressional primaries to replace longtime Democratic U.S. Rep. Raúl Grijalva, who died in March from complications from cancer treatment.
The winners will represent their parties in a Sept. 23 special election to serve out the remaining 15 months of Grijalva’s term in the 7th Congressional District, which stretches from Yuma to Tuscon and hugs almost the entire length of Arizona’s border with Mexico.
The seat will not decide control of the U.S. House, but it is one of three vacancies in heavily Democratic districts that, when filled in special elections this fall, will likely chip away at Republicans’ slender 220-212 majority in the chamber.
Five candidates are running for the Democratic nomination. Former Pima County Supervisor Adelita Grijalva is the daughter of the late congressman and has the support of many of the state’s most prominent Democrats, including U.S. Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego, state Attorney General Kris Mayes and former U.S. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords. She also has endorsements from U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, key figures in the party’s progressive wing. Sanders is an independent who caucuses with Democrats.
Former state Rep. Daniel Hernandez previously ran in the neighboring 6th Congressional District in 2022 but fell short of the nomination. As a congressional intern in January 2011, he provided care to Giffords after a near-fatal assassination attempt outside a Tucson grocery store.
Social media influencer and progressive activist Deja Foxx is the youngest in the field at age 25. As a 16-year-old, Foxx gained prominence when an interaction she had with Republican then-U.S. Sen. Jeff Flake on reproductive rights at a 2017 town hall went viral. She went on to work as a digital strategist for Kamala Harris’ presidential primary campaign in 2020. She told Rolling Stone in 2021 that she plans to be president.
Indigenous activist and scholar Jose Malvido Jr. and former health care executive Patrick Harris Sr. also seek the Democratic nomination.
The Republican primary ballot features contractor and small business owner Daniel Butierez, restaurant owner Jorge Rivas and general contractor and vehicle accessory business owner Jimmy Rodriguez. All three have previously sought elected office.
Butierez received about 37% of the vote as the Republican nominee against Raúl Grijalva in 2024, while then-presidential candidate Donald Trump retook Arizona at the top of the ballot. Rivas mounted a short-lived campaign for governor in 2022 following a 2020 flap when his and his wife’s attendance at a Trump campaign rally triggered negative reviews of his restaurant. Rodriguez ran for Congress in 2020, initially filing to run in Arizona’s 8th Congressional District as a GOP primary challenger to then-U.S. Rep. Debbie Lesko but ultimately withdrawing and running instead in Vermont, where he lost the Republican nomination to face Democratic U.S. Rep. Peter Welch.
Hernandez led the field in fundraising as of late June, with $981,000 in total contributions compared with $834,000 for Grijalva and $600,000 for Foxx. But Hernandez’s high spending rate left Adelita Grijalva with the most money in the bank heading into the campaign’s final stretch. She had about $128,000 as of June 25, compared with $100,000 for Foxx and about $37,000 for Hernandez.
Butierez had brought in nearly $180,000 for his campaign, most of it in loans secured by the candidate. His $98,000 in the bank far eclipsed the rest of the GOP field.
The majority-Hispanic 7th District includes parts of six counties, including the three most populous: Maricopa, Pima and Pinal. While Maricopa often plays a pivotal role in statewide elections, it takes a backseat in the 7th District to Pima County, which comprises more than 60% of the district’s registered voters.
Democrats enjoy a nearly 2-1 ratio registration advantage over Republicans, both districtwide as well as in five of the six counties. Republicans outnumber Democrats in the small corner of Pinal County that falls within district boundaries.
After Pima County, Maricopa and Yuma counties offer the highest potential for possible votes in both Democratic and Republican primaries, followed by Santa Cruz.
The Associated Press does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.
In Arizona, recounts are automatic if the vote margin is 0.5% of the total vote or less. The AP may declare a winner in a race that’s eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.
Here’s a look at what to expect Tuesday:
Special primary day
The special primaries for Arizona’s 7th Congressional District will be held Tuesday. Polls close districtwide at 7 p.m. local time, which is 10 p.m. ET. No results will be released before 11 p.m. ET. Most of Arizona does not observe Daylight Saving Time.
What’s on the ballot?
The AP will provide vote results and declare winners in both the Democratic and Republican primaries.
Who gets to vote?
The special primaries are limited to voters who are registered in the 7th Congressional District. Registered Democrats and Republicans may vote only in their own parties’ primaries. Independents may vote in either the Democratic or Republican primary.
What do turnout and advance vote look like?
As of June 16, there were nearly 440,000 voters registered in the 7th District. Of those, about 175,000, or 40%, were Democrats, and nearly 92,000, or 21%, were Republicans. Roughly 165,000 voters were not registered with any party.
In the 2024 primaries for the 7th District, turnout was 12% of registered voters in the Democratic primary and 5% in the Republican primary. About 92% of Democratic primary voters and about 80% of Republican primary voters cast their ballots before election day.
As of Thursday, nearly 40,000 Democratic and more than 12,000 Republican primary ballots had already been cast.
How long does vote-counting usually take?
In the 2024 presidential election, the AP first reported results in the 7th District at 10 p.m. ET, the earliest time votes were allowed to be released under state law. Tabulation ended for the night at 6:44 a.m. ET with about 55% of total votes counted.
Are we there yet?
As of Tuesday, there will be 70 days until the special general election on Sept. 23.
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Follow the AP’s coverage of the 2025 election at https://apnews.com/projects/election-results-2025/.
Robert Yoon, The Associated Press
